Goshen Market Basics: Prices, Inventory, Days on Market

Are you trying to figure out if it’s a good time to buy or sell in Goshen? The fastest way to read the market is to focus on three signals: prices, inventory, and days on market. You don’t need a math degree to make sense of them, and a few smart checks can keep you from drawing the wrong conclusion. In this guide, you’ll learn how to pull the right numbers, interpret them for Goshen, and decide on next steps with confidence. Let’s dive in.

Prices: what “median” really tells you

When people talk about “prices,” they usually mean the median sale price. That is the middle sale in a group of closed deals. Half of the homes sold for more, half for less. It is less sensitive to a single luxury sale than an average.

In a small market like Goshen, monthly medians can jump around because there may only be a handful of sales. To smooth out noise, look at rolling 3-, 6-, and 12-month medians. Then compare Goshen to broader areas such as Orange County or the Hudson Valley to understand whether a move is local or regional.

Seasonality matters here. Activity usually speeds up in spring and slows late fall and winter. If you want a fair comparison, use year-over-year views for the same month or season.

Days on market: the speed of the sale

Days on market (DOM) measures how long a listing takes to go under contract. Short DOM suggests strong demand. Longer DOM suggests buyers have more time and leverage.

Common ranges many pros use:

• Under 30 days: very fast, strong demand
• 30 to 60 days: brisk, balanced to seller-favoring
• 60 to 90 days: moderate, edging toward balanced
• Over 90 days: slow, buyer-leaning

DOM can be reported in different ways by different platforms. Some count from listing to contract, others to closing, and relisted homes can skew the number. Focus on median DOM and, if possible, the share of homes that went under contract in under 30 days for a clearer picture.

Inventory and months of supply: the market’s balance point

If you only watch one metric, make it months of supply (MOS). MOS tells you how long it would take to sell all current active listings at the recent pace of sales. It combines supply and demand into one number.

• Formula: MOS = Active inventory ÷ Average monthly closed sales
• Industry benchmarks:
  • Under 4 months: seller’s market
  • 4 to 6 months: balanced market
  • Over 6 months: buyer’s market

Break MOS down by property type and price band when you can. Overall MOS can look balanced while entry-level homes are very tight and upper-tier homes sit longer.

Quick example (hypothetical)

Imagine Goshen has 120 active single-family listings and averaged 40 closed single-family sales per month over the past 3 months. MOS = 120 ÷ 40 = 3 months. That would suggest a seller’s market by the common under-4-month guideline. Always recalculate with current local numbers.

How to read Goshen at a glance

Use multiple time windows to keep perspective:

• Rolling 3 months for near-term movement
• 6 months to catch seasonal shifts
• 12 months to see the underlying trend

Check the geography and segment most relevant to you. A few high-price sales can lift the overall median even if entry-level demand is the real driver. If the number of recent sales is small, lean on 12-month figures or blend in county-level context.

Put the signals together: what it means for you

Use combinations of price direction, DOM, and MOS to guide strategy. Here are common patterns and what they typically suggest:

Hot seller’s market

• Signals: rising median price, falling or short DOM, MOS under 3 to 4 months, list-to-sale ratio near or above 100 percent.
• If you’re selling: price competitively, prepare for a quick sale, and consider pre-inspections to keep the timeline smooth.
• If you’re buying: move fast, get pre-approved, and set a clear budget. Consider escalation clauses or waived contingencies carefully.

Balanced to stable

• Signals: flat or gently rising prices, DOM around 30 to 60 days, MOS between 4 and 6 months, list-to-sale ratio around 97 to 100 percent.
• If you’re selling: stage and price well, and allow a 2 to 6 week window for marketing.
• If you’re buying: write realistic offers based on comps, and look for concessions where demand is softer.

Cooling or buyer-leaning

• Signals: prices edging down, DOM rising, MOS over 6 months, list-to-sale ratio under 97 percent.
• If you’re selling: be ready to adjust price or offer concessions, and plan for longer timelines.
• If you’re buying: expect more negotiating room on price, repairs, or seller-paid closing costs.

Mixed by segment

• Signals: the overall median looks flat, but entry-level sells fast while upper-tier listings linger.
• Action: focus on your exact price band and property type. The strategy for a starter home may not fit a larger acreage property.

Build your Goshen snapshot in 10 minutes

Here is a simple process you can follow today:

1. Define your window. Pick the last 3, 6, and 12 months to track short-term movement against the broader trend.
2. Pull sold and active data. Use local MLS data if you have access, or start with well-known national portals for a quick view. Confirm how each source defines DOM and “sold date.”
3. Count active listings and average recent closed sales. Use the last 3 months of closed sales to compute a current sales pace.
4. Calculate MOS. Active listings ÷ average monthly closed sales = months of supply.
5. Note the median sale price and median DOM. If sample sizes are small, use 12-month rolling figures for stability.
6. Segment if needed. Check your specific price range and property type to avoid misleading overall medians.
7. Timestamp your snapshot. Always label the period covered so you know what you are comparing next month.

At-a-glance checklist template

Use this simple template and update it monthly:

• Median sale price: [period + value]
• Median DOM: [period + value]
• Active listings: [count]
• Average monthly closed sales (last 3 months): [count]
• Months of supply (MOS): [calculation and result]
• One-line read: [seller/balanced/buyer] market. Next step: [clear action for you as a buyer or seller].

Avoid common pitfalls

• Small sample swings. With fewer than about 20 sales in a short window, medians and MOS can jump. Cross-check with 12-month figures.
• Mixed signals. If DOM is falling while MOS is rising, you may be looking at different time lags or definitions. Confirm whether DOM is measured to contract and whether sales counts are based on contract date or closing date.
• All-properties averages. Aggregate stats can hide the reality of your price band or home type. Segment your view where possible.

What this means for your decision

Your goal is to match timing and strategy to the current balance of the Goshen market. When MOS is tight and DOM is short, sellers can often move quickly with strong pricing. When MOS rises and DOM stretches, buyers usually gain room to negotiate and request repairs or credits.

If you want a precise read at the neighborhood level, ask for a comparative market analysis that uses MLS data filtered to your property type, price band, and recent contract dates. That puts your decision on solid ground and helps you act with confidence.

Ready to build your Goshen snapshot or talk strategy for your next move? Reach out to JPL Signature Homes for a local, data-informed plan and concierge guidance from first conversation to closing.

FAQs

What single number best shows Goshen’s market balance?

• Months of supply (MOS). It combines active inventory and sales pace to indicate whether conditions tend to favor buyers or sellers.

How often should I check Goshen’s prices and DOM?

• Monthly if you are actively searching or preparing to list, and quarterly if you are planning ahead. Use 12-month rolling stats for strategy.

Can a few high-end sales skew Goshen’s median price?

• Yes. Medians are steadier than averages, but in a small market a few outliers can still move the median. Always check sample size and price distribution.

How do mortgage rates show up in these metrics?

• Higher rates can slow demand, which may raise MOS and DOM and ease prices. Lower rates often spur demand, tightening supply and shortening DOM.

Can I see neighborhood-level stats in Goshen?

• Yes. Ask for MLS-filtered comps by zip, subdivision, school district, price band, and property type to get a precise view aligned to your goals.